Tucson, Arizona played host to three full-on days of keynotes, presentations, early morning rides, dinners, happy hours, and plenty of healthy debate. So what did I take away from being a delegate at the event?

Post-Post Pandemic

We’re now firmly in what I’d call the “Post-Post-Pandemic” era. The pandemic was, we know, a rollercoaster for the industry - brilliant and brutal in equal measure. A couple boom years which brought unprecedented highs, but the hangover that followed has been even more intense, almost all businesses have faced huge challenges. Things are now edging back towards something resembling “normal” - but sales are softening. And the overall feeling was - people stocked up during COVID. Many cupboards, wardrobes, sheds, garages — all still full. And as many of us quietly acknowledge - most of it’s not going to be replaced any time soon.

Looking at the 2024 US sales data - the market was down 9%, and almost half the decline came from mountain bikes (mainly driven by acoustic mountain bikes). The sluggish summer in 2023 led to aggressive discounting, which dragged demand forward and left Q1 2024 looking thin, and the market didn’t catch up with itself again over the summer.

Direct-to- consumer has reached a plateau

For a while, Direct-to-Consumer looked like it might upend the entire retail model. However, in the cycling category it hasn’t. And, in all likelihood, it won’t. In 2024, the DTC in the US market hit $1.28 billion - mostly driven by throttle e-bikes that many IBDs wouldn’t touch at first. So in effect drove consumers online, but in the main consumers still want to buy bikes in retail. On the industry side, there’s also the reality that when brands go DTC, costs go up. Gross Margins which might seem great, and rapidly eaten up by high operating costs - from increased media investment, delivery costs, customer support and managing returns . You’re not making more money - just giving consumers a different route to buy. It’s not the silver bullet some hoped it would be.

Meanwhile, IBDs (Independent Bike Dealers) are evolving. Many are now leaning into throttle e-bikes, diversifying what they offer and how they serve their communities by going multi-channel themselves. There’s a real opportunity here - particularly if brands are prepared to support them better. Tools like Locally, which plug inventory data into Google search results, can make a significant difference. But only if brands are willing to rethink how they work with retailers.

The on coming e-bike challenge

E-bikes themselves are a subject all on their own. Right now, the vast majority sold online in the US are throttle-based. And there start-up style kits available are everywhere - making it very easy to become a brand and enter the market - there are some 500+ brands available to buy in the US market. Unfortunately, as sales grow, so do the issues. Fatal accidents are increasing in direct correlation with the increases in usage. Governments and councils are fielding more complaints about e-bikes than just about anything else on the roads.Which doesn’t make sense, but some local authorities in the USA even thinking about banning wheelies to tackle the problem! Regulating the category is proving tricky. Do you do it by tire width? Weight? Speed? Torque? Throttle? There’s no easy answer. However, on the positive the opportunity is enormous. If the US adopted e-bikes at the same level as Germany (which is a big ‘if’), the market would be worth $15 billion — more than double the size of the current American cycling category sales.

Then, of course, there’s the political layer. Tariffs. Trade disruption. Trump. The way tariffs are being applied is, frankly, erratic. China tariffs appear here to stay. Canada and Mexico are a little more flexible. Europe? Increasingly difficult.

That said, this is a resilient industry. It can deal with tough conditions — but it does need more predictability. Many brands are actively exploring alternatives: reshoring, near-shoring, bringing manufacturing closer to home. Europe is leading the way — PON, for example, now builds 1.2 million bikes in Europe annually, with half of its high-end and electric range moved back from Asia.

So — was it worth attending? Absolutely.

I had the chance to spend time with existing clients, meet new ones and get a clearer view of where the industry is headed. And more importantly — how we all stay part of that journey.

Because in the end, it’s not just about bikes. It’s about being part of a community that rides the highs and lows together.